Martin Le Poidevin
Having been a part of the aviation industry - albeit a small part - until last summer, I've been watching the volcanic ash events with interest.
I remember some time ago, studying for either my Meteorology or Aviation Law exam (can't remember which) reading about Ashtams (don't think they're actually called that) and thinking they'd never affect us. Well, turns out that they can.
I know of the incidents which have lead to this paranoia about flying through volcanic ash, and I can see that they cause concern. There are real potential problems. I can also see why they never did anything about planning for it in Europe. I mean, can you imagine the public reaction (or the shareholders' reaction!) if we/they found that some of our ticket money was being diverted into volcanic ash contingencies. What volcanoes? In Europe!?
However, the situation is now getting quite tense. Airlines are losing money, and the rumour from the inside is that they can't sustain that for long. And there's the rest of the economy. I've just been to a school where at least three teachers are stranded abroad. Heard this morning of a school with 15 in the same boat (out of 70). And what about imports? Food? Supplies? Many people beyond the obvious ones are suffering.
My prediction? Some airlines have flown tests through the dust and had no problem. On the other hand, the Met Office (I think) apparently has done the same, and identified potential dangers. Sure, one set of flights were looking for the problem, the others weren't - so you're bound to get conflicting answers. However, I think public pressure will prevail and later this week, whatever the volcanic outlook, we'll be flying again. Then there'll be incidents - maybe just one, with just one engine on one aircraft showing a problem. Nobody will die; but the cat will truly be amongst the pigeons.
interesting. And for once, for now, at last - I'm an observer.
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